Mott's Blog

Aging coal-fired power plants are, of course, problematic for the reliability of the Polish electricity supply. A single outage in one or two huge coal plants can cause major problems in the grid supply of electricity, as we saw this summer. However, the strategy of building large new coal-fired power blocks is also problematic for many of the same reasons. Poland is the only country in Europe pursuing this strategy and it makes no sense. A new report from a Polish expert  argues that shortages could become critical in three to four years. The aging power plants are closing (many this year due to the end of their exemption period under the EU rules for major combustion plants). Others will simply close because they are falling apart in the next few years. The only sources of electricity that can fill this void and create a more reliable and diversified electricity supply (critical to continued economic growth and energy security) are renewable energy sources (which could t...

The arguments advanced in Poland in favor of the continued public investment in coal and lignite all center on their availability (which is an empty argument ) and their relatively lower price.  The lower price of fossil fuels is a near-term fact in some ways (depending on where you are on-shore wind may already be cheaper than new coal plants). See U.S. EIA (2014). But the cost advantage of fossil fuel has a shelve life, It is a transitional notion that will disappear in the coming years. Even China, which was rapidly expanding coal-fired capacity has slowed down now, and the future will belong to renewables.                                                   Source: Bloomberg 2015.    Generally in China, the "cross-over" point for on-shore wind is 2022 and the point for PV is 2027. In some other places it has already been hit. This i...