CAN REPUBLICANS ENDURE THE COST OF NOT SUPPORTING UKRAINE?
Randy M. Mott[i]
Originally written in October 2022
At this point in time, the Ukrainian army is humiliating Putin’s army and dramatically reversing his invasion. Displaying incredible courage and at the same time patience, the Ukrainian soldiers have quickly learned mastery over NATO and especially American weapons that have made the difference on the battlefield. Long-range precision artillery and rocket fire have offset the Russian advantage in the number of guns, then have overwhelmed their command-and-control centers, ammo dumps and now troop concentrations. Stingers have negated Russian close air support. HARM missiles have neutralized Russian air defenses. Russia is not just withdrawing; it is frequently being routed.
Despite a clear victory brewing over one of American’s most persistent opponents, many in the American conservative movement are pushing back on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. Social media is filled with allegations of Ukrainian corruption, neo-Nazi allegations, and isolationist impulses, mostly from people who would describe themselves as MAGA voters.
This reflexive negative reaction of some to the Biden Administration’s aid efforts threatens to totally undermine Republicans at the polls in future elections, beginning in 2024. Virtually none of the criticism of the support is directed at any factual situations. Ukraine’s historical corruption and occasional neo-Nazi inconsequential figures are used to try to discredit the whole defense of Ukraine. Both are major Russian propaganda lines being aggressively pursued by America’s enemies. Photoshopped pictures have been found in virtually all the “neo-Nazi” posts. The superficial charge has been thoroughly debunked, but MAGA supporters keep posting them.
Special efforts have been made to track aid and assure deliveries for the intended purposes. The Inspector General of Department of Defense, emphasized that NATO representatives "seem to be confident that sufficient security measures have been taken for the supply of weapons.” MAGA folks should remember that Trump stalled aid in 2019 to assure that corruption issues would not divert any help. He was confident and released that military aid package.
Most MAGA voters only know Ukraine from the Hunter Biden scandal, mistakenly attributing the behavior of the prior Ukrainian government to the current one. Zelensky was elected on an anti-corruption platform and defeated the prior president who was heard on leaked phone calls talking about Hunter Biden covering for them. And, of course, there is a new bit of “Biden derangement syndrome,” which holds that anything Biden does must be corrupt and wrong.
Before detailing the frailty of these arguments, I want to advance forward to 2024. Ukraine is then free and celebrating. Epic stories emerge of the heroism of the people and the depravity of the Russian occupiers. There is already enough confirmed material on both these narratives to do multiple TV specials, online movies, books, and hundreds of personal interest news stories. This will evolve into a global celebration by 2024.
On a more substantive level, Ukraine’s victory will mean that Putin has been declawed. His military has been reduced to a shadow of its former self with no ability to rebuild due to sanctions. No piece of modern Russian equipment (generally underperforming in combat) can be now produced without Western technology. Politically, Russia has never been more economically and politically isolated. War crimes cases will be ongoing and trigger disgusting news. The United States, for supplying the key weapons and training to win the war, will be riding high. NATO will be stronger with new members in Sweden and Finland and a strong ally in Ukraine. Having frequently blocked U.S. NATO initiatives, Germany will see substantially reduced influence in Europe, both due to its slow walk on military aid and its foolish dependence on Russian energy sources.
Democrats ironically will claim a great victory and will assume full credit for fighting to get the necessary aid to win the war. Ironic in the sense that Biden’s first impulse was to fly Zelensky out of Kiev, achieving a key Putin objective early in the war. The Democrats resisted sanctions before the invasion to respond to the build-up. Obama and Biden refused to provide lethal aid in 2014, despite Congressional authorization. What changed the situation was Zelensky’s brilliant leadership and very effective public opinion campaign. Only after the public opinion shifted did Biden get on the train. Once on board, this became a major feature of his foreign policy and the source of many headlines. This will grow to a crescendo by 2024 with a Ukraine victory.
How will MAGA be perceived by 2024 on this issue? The Ukraine story will be a major feature in the public spotlight. Quotes by Republicans from Donald Trump, Rand Paul, and others will be used to create a new paradigm: a new Russian collusion case, not based on minor election meddling, but on subverting the defense of a courageous country invaded by Putin’s evil army. This will be seized by legacy media, become a firestorm on social media, and used with a broad bush against every Republican candidate. It is naïve to assume that this would not be a major Democrat theme in future elections.
Democrats will allege that Republicans wanted to decline to help the defense of millions of innocent people being subjected to rape, looting, murder and “re-education.” Because of a tiny number of extremist neo-Nazis, marginal nut jobs, the same conservatives who blast liberals in the U.S. for trying to generalize from similar cases will be caught doing the same thing, but at the expense of millions of innocent women and children. All of this will make the old Russian collusion case look tame indeed.
But we do not need to go to that future. Republicans have historically been stronger on Ukraine than Democrats. Trump recognized the folly of Germany and other Europeans dependence on Russian natural gas. We fought for lethal aid in 2014. We fought for pre-invasion sanctions. So why do some of our elected and opinion leaders parrot pro-Russian propaganda about Nazis and corruption in Ukraine? There is no evidence that either have played any role in the defense of Ukraine or that they are in any way whatsoever relevant to the U.S. military assistance (a major part of which is older equipment in storage turned over with an accounting entry). These voices never tell us why their allegations should lead to us declining aid that is defeating Putin.
A standard Republican political punch line is now too frequently why we are aiding Ukraine and not our own people. This gets a visceral reaction from the traditional isolationists in our party. While it is preposterous to divert HIMARS rocket launchers or 155mm artillery from Ukrainian aid packages to aid the Florida relief effort or help close the border, those are the comparisons being made. Some MAGA folks like to use the punchline, nevertheless. The economic aid is significant but more not even be a footnote in the giant Democrat spending bills.
Left unsaid is the economic impact of the U.S. of a Ukrainian victory and expanded NATO. These countries are standardizing to NATO specifications and the demand of U.S. weapons systems is huge. We can not only look forward to increased export opportunities and new jobs, but our investment opportunities in Ukraine’s post-war will be huge and very welcomed.
The alternative to U.S. aid would have been a disaster for the U.S. and NATO. If we allowed Putin to occupy Ukraine, a vast new border between Russia and NATO would be created. Demands on U.S. military expenditures to defend NATO would mushroom. Putin’s control of resources would be greatly increased. All this at a time, when the U.S. needs to be focusing on containment of Communist China. These are the stakes and aid is essential.
The Establishment narrative is that U.S. interests were served by the pre-war status quo, assuming that Putin will not simply renew hostilities when the opportunity arose. Blaming the stalled efforts of Ukraine’s pre-war attempt to join NATO as a provocation is a common line, but totally discredited by real events and evidence. Putin’s objective to try to re-create Russia’s hold on former Soviet territories has been made clear now. Pressing Ukraine to stop recovery of its legal borders and leave Putin to recoup losses, will not end the conflict and would only postpone it until a time when his odds for success rose. The end game is pushing Russians out and destroying as much of his army as possible in the process so he does not try again.
The United States' support to Ukraine has been the difference in the war. The courage of the Ukrainian people in literally defending their homes and families has been amazing and inspiring. U.S. HIMARS long-range rockets, HARM missiles to take out Russian air defenses, Stingers for air defense cover, other equipment and training made the Ukrainian army more modern and better trained than the Russians. Our efforts have pushed NATO allies to increase their defense spending, often to buy more American weapon systems.
In the post-war world in Europe, Putin can be contained by the invigorated NATO and Ukrainian ally. Many U.S. personnel and assts in Europe can be repositioned or brought home. He may not even survive in the longer-term in his control of Russia. His bluffs about nuclear weapon use have not been effective to change the course of the war and military experts, including in Russia, have advised that their use would not change the outcome of the conventional battlefield. After decades of defense spending in the trillions of dollars, we have neutralized Russia with 10% of a single year’s Department of Defense budget. Russians may even need reassurance that Ukrainian and NATO war aims go no further than the Russian border, based on the panic now appearing in Russian state-controlled media. But the world is fundamentally changing as we sit here. While not our direct objective, there is new speculation that Putin may not survive the failed war.
Republicans and especially MAGA supporters, including President Trump, need to get back on the traditional Republican platform of opposing the evil empire and helping our allies impose the containment of that empire as it ultimately fails from within. This is who we have been and more than ever what we should become.
NOTE: In July 2024, the Reagan Institute poll showed that 70% of MAGA voters supported Ukraine winning. But only 50% thought that Ukraine was winning. Things have improved over that period to September 24. Ultimately if Ukraine can win and it is not an endless war, I believe that Republicans will overwhelmingly support the aid. Trump is making a big mistake playing to our isolationist minority also evidenced by the July 2024 two to one GOP vote in the House against an amendment to cut aid.
[i] Mr. Mott is a retired American lawyer living in Warsaw, Poland. He was a commissioned infantry officer in USAR. He also serves as the vie president of the George S. Patton Foundation in Poland. His views are his own.
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