At some point, facts matter. In the end, reality has a way of asserting itself. Senator Everett Dirksen (for whom a US Senate office building is now named) was asked on one election night to comment on his early lead in the voting. He told the story of two Irishmen working on a fifteen story building. O'Malley falls off the top floor and his colleague O'Reilly starts running down the stairwell to try to help him. O'Reilly sticks his head out and yells to O'Malley, "how is it going?" O'Malley says "so far, so good...." as his sails to the ground below.
When Poland announced the cut-off of green certificates for new installations and the plans to move to auctions, I predicted that there would be a major gap in development of renewable energy sources. The problem is that the auction has to provide a lengthy window for facilities to actually start producing electricity. Cutting off new certificates along with their market demise meant that there would not be actual new production coming on line in the transition period. This situation has occurred now and new RES is only a trickle into the grid.
This will not be alleviated by the existing system of certificates, since the huge over-supply can be used to meet the RES quotas. So Polish electricity producers can meet the RES requirement by stockpiled certificates without any new actual green electricity production. This is fine for the immediate legal environment, i.e. they can be in compliance with the law.
But Poland has a national target for RES for 2020 that cannot be meet by stockp…
The shape of the RES amendments now proceeding in the legislature in Poland reflects what I predicted. This is the first set of rules to have been scrutinized by the European Commission DG Competition on state aid and the changes are generally better for RES developers. There is strong support for biogas in both pricing and procedures.
The reference price in the auction is quite acceptable, especially for projects that use waste feed stock and have heat sale contracts. The apparent shift in calculating state aid deductions from the energy price awarded will put plants without government grants on equal footing in the bidding.
These amendments were required by the European Commission to allow the auctions to proceed under compliance with EU state aid rules. This is the first major adjustment of the Polish system to comply. It also adds some wind capacity to the auctions and signals a change in the dogmatic position on wind, which the European Commission no doubt found objectionable. …