When the investors leave.......

The reality of modern economics is an inescapable condition in which public policy finds itself. The delusions of central government economic planning via command and control have been proven to be fatally flawed by history. In the end, people commit to the things that work and are economically sustainable based upon their own individual decisions or those of their private organization. Their mistakes are seen by others and new decisions made that better reflect the economics and technical reality on the ground.

When investors decline to participate in an activity, it is generally not profitable enough to be sustainable. At the same time, the risks may be much greater than the potential rewards, so the money stays home or goes somewhere else.

This is largely the story of Polish energy at this point. The only folks who want to pursuit a nuclear plant investment in the land of the highest red tape in the EU are the government-owned entities who have no actual choice in the matter.  Private vendors might be lined up in hopes of getting a piece of the action, but the money will come from the government if it comes from anywhere. Ultimately if it happens, it will be the most expensive energy in Poland and that makes it doubly unlikely to happen.

At the same time, all the major international players have pulled out of shale gas in Poland (at the same time it is booming in the United States). While you can actually own sub-surface mineral rights in the United States and you cannot in Poland, the Polish Government mentality has killed any remaining chances of a breakthrough here. The expensive exploration wells (over a million Euro each) are too much for small firms and too risky for venture capital. The players left are the Polish Government-owned companies. They are proceeding at a snail's pace.

The signal of the fundamental problems in the energy policies involved is the lack of interested investors. The projects will not work. The government encumbered by politics, ideology, corruption, and incompetence cannot make the same calculated decision. Non-economic criteria become the drivers for government policy and that generally leads to massive problems, great delusions and broken dreams.

Investors are still waiting in line to invest in renewable energy projects in Poland. Waiting for some small real signal that the legal and legislative process will reach a reasonable end. Investors know that the future is renewable energy and especially distributed energy. Only the majority of Polish politicians remain immune for the reality on the ground.


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