UK Illustrates How Fast RES Can Deploy(without auctions)

The UK just went from 4 percent renewable energy in 2013 to 19% in 2014. This is the pre-auction surge under their old system. But it illustrrates that RES projects can be rapidly developed in a system that is stable (aid to co-firing in the UK is restricted).

Wind and PV have development schedules that are quite short compared to other electricity production. Auctions will delay projects, since they cannot be put online as they are prepared. The dilemma of auctions is always that strict penalties deter bids and lower pre-qualificatgion requirements and lower penalties encourage bidders to under-bid and under-build. See EcoFys (2014).

An additional problem that I have suggested (I never saw this mentioned by anyone else) is that projects to be eligible  to bid must have all of the legal means of producing energy tied up in legal agreements and a substantial percent of these will lose the auction or not even be bid in the end. So, using the European Commission suggestion that twice the power should be bid as can be awarded, half of the RES potential at any point in an auction system will not be built when it is ready to proceed. For the 19 Member States not on track to meet the 2020 target, this will prove to be fatal.

Poland has leaned very little from these experiences and is likely to see a big drop off in large projects in 2015-2016.


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