Hurricanes and Global Warming

There is alot of talk about the new season of big hurricanes as somehow evidence of global warming. Everything that I have seen contradicts this assumption. Free et al (2004) tried this hypothesis, expecting to find a correlation. This effort, however, yielded "no significant trend in potential intensity from 1980 to 1995 and no consistent trend from 1975 to 1995." What is more, they report that between 1975 and 1980, "while SSTs [sea surface temperatures] rose, PI [hurricane potential intensity] decreased, illustrating the hazards of predicting changes in hurricane intensity from projected SST changes alone." Balling and Cerveny (2003)could find no associations between timing and duration of the hurricane season and geographic position of storms and either local, hemispheric or global temperature using a database of all tropical storms that occurred within the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the western North Atlantic Ocean over the period 1950-2002. Landsea et al. (1998) report that "Atlantic hurricane activity has actually decreased significantly in both frequency of intense hurricanes and mean intensity of all named storms over the past few decades..."

Stay tuned for more facts of the Kyoto fraud................. R. Mott


REFERENCES:

Balling Jr., R.C. and Cerveny, R.S. 2003. Analysis of the
duration, seasonal timing, and location of North Atlantic
tropical cyclones: 1950-2002. Geophysical Research Letters
30: 10.1029/2003GL018404.

Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. 2002. Low frequency
variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 1.
Interannual to interdecadal variability. Journal of
Geophysical Research 107: 10.1029/2001JD000776.

Boose, E.R., Chamberlin, K.E. and Foster, D.R. 2001.
Landscape and regional impacts of hurricanes in New
England. Ecological Monographs 71: 27-48.

Bove, M.C., Zierden, D.F. and O'Brien, J.J. 1998. Are
gulf landfalling hurricanes getting stronger? Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society 79: 1327-1328.

Easterling, D.R., Evans, J.L., Groisman, P.Ya., Karl, T.R.,
Kunkel, K.E. and Ambenje, P. 2000. Observed variability
and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81:
417-425.

Elsner, J.B., Liu, K.-b. and Kocher, B. 2000. Spatial
variations in major U.S. hurricane activity: Statistics and
a physical mechanism. Journal of Climate 13: 2293-2305.

Elsner, J.B., Niu, X. and Jagger, T.H. 2004. Detecting
shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo
approach. Journal of Climate 17: 2652-2666.

Free, M., Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. 2004. Potential
intensity of tropical cyclones: Comparison of results from
radiosonde and reanalysis data. Journal of Climate 17:
1722-1727.

Landsea, C.W, Bell, G.D., Gray, W.M. and Goldenberg, S.B.
1998. The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season:
environmental conditions and verification of seasonal
forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 126: 1174-1193.

Landsea, C.N., Pielke Jr., R.A., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M. and
Knaff, J.A. 1999. Atlantic basin hurricanes: indices of
climatic changes. Climatic Change 42: 89-129.

Liu, K.-b. and Fearn, M.L. 1993. Lake-sediment record of
late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama.
Geology 21: 793-796.

Liu, K.-b. and Fearn, M.L. 2000. Reconstruction of
prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes
in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records.
Quaternary Research 54: 238-245.

Parisi, F. and Lund, R. 2000. Seasonality and return
periods of landfalling Atlantic basin hurricanes.
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics 42: 271-282.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Could the early exit polling results be a result of the fact that a lot of democrats are on welfare etc and have free time all day and they flooded the polls early on while republicans who generally have to work didn't
get to the polls till later in the day?

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