Hurricanes and Global Warming

There is alot of talk about the new season of big hurricanes as somehow evidence of global warming. Everything that I have seen contradicts this assumption. Free et al (2004) tried this hypothesis, expecting to find a correlation. This effort, however, yielded "no significant trend in potential intensity from 1980 to 1995 and no consistent trend from 1975 to 1995." What is more, they report that between 1975 and 1980, "while SSTs [sea surface temperatures] rose, PI [hurricane potential intensity] decreased, illustrating the hazards of predicting changes in hurricane intensity from projected SST changes alone." Balling and Cerveny (2003)could find no associations between timing and duration of the hurricane season and geographic position of storms and either local, hemispheric or global temperature using a database of all tropical storms that occurred within the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the western North Atlantic Ocean over the period 1950-2002. Landsea et al. (1998) report that "Atlantic hurricane activity has actually decreased significantly in both frequency of intense hurricanes and mean intensity of all named storms over the past few decades..."

Stay tuned for more facts of the Kyoto fraud................. R. Mott


REFERENCES:

Balling Jr., R.C. and Cerveny, R.S. 2003. Analysis of the
duration, seasonal timing, and location of North Atlantic
tropical cyclones: 1950-2002. Geophysical Research Letters
30: 10.1029/2003GL018404.

Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. 2002. Low frequency
variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 1.
Interannual to interdecadal variability. Journal of
Geophysical Research 107: 10.1029/2001JD000776.

Boose, E.R., Chamberlin, K.E. and Foster, D.R. 2001.
Landscape and regional impacts of hurricanes in New
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Bove, M.C., Zierden, D.F. and O'Brien, J.J. 1998. Are
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Easterling, D.R., Evans, J.L., Groisman, P.Ya., Karl, T.R.,
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Elsner, J.B., Liu, K.-b. and Kocher, B. 2000. Spatial
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Elsner, J.B., Niu, X. and Jagger, T.H. 2004. Detecting
shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo
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Free, M., Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. 2004. Potential
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Landsea, C.W, Bell, G.D., Gray, W.M. and Goldenberg, S.B.
1998. The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season:
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Landsea, C.N., Pielke Jr., R.A., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M. and
Knaff, J.A. 1999. Atlantic basin hurricanes: indices of
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Liu, K.-b. and Fearn, M.L. 1993. Lake-sediment record of
late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama.
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Liu, K.-b. and Fearn, M.L. 2000. Reconstruction of
prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes
in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records.
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Parisi, F. and Lund, R. 2000. Seasonality and return
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